By Dana Fesjian I started writing this article after the Bills went 1-3 in the preseason. But after they won their first two regular season games I thought Buffalo’s quarterback quandary had been resolved. Unfortunately I was wrong. Last November I also wrote an article about the uncertain future of Bills’ backup quarterbacks. Now that very same uncertainty has enveloped EJ Manuel. You’d think after … Continue reading Betcha Can’t Choose Just One
By Max Kaplan
League-wide, the conversion rate on 4th down is 50% but it jumps to 65% on 4th and 1. Ever wonder how likely it is to convert in a given situation? I ventured to find out, armed with the entire season’s worth of data from 2012.
The goal of 1st down is to create a manageable 2nd down. The goal of 2nd down is to create a manageable 3rd down. But you have to convert, eventually. What are the percentages of converting on a given down and distance?
*2012 Season
Note: Bigger rectangles are ranges of situations - used when
there weren’t enough plays in a given down and distance.
by Dana Fesjian
Every week after the Bills lose I always think, “If they just win every game from now on they can still make it to the playoffs.” Eventually, I start losing hope, but that hasn’t happened yet! They can still make it to the playoffs if they win every game from now on. They’ll be 10 and 6. That works. We just have to make sure the Patriots and the Jets stop winning. Good luck. OH, and one more thing, we may need a quarterback to play and not get injured for the next seven weeks. Again, good luck.
O Come, O Come EJ Manuel
After last year’s draft I was ecstatic that we (I consider myself a part of this team, true fan.) got EJ Manuel, finally a quarterback that could have some star power - no offense Ryan Fitzpatrick or Trent Edwards. Manuel had been playing great in the first 4 games and even though there was definitely room for improvement, the Bills were 2-2 and still in contention with the rest of the AFC East.
During a week 1 loss against the Patriots, Manuel completed 18 for 27 with 150 yards and 1 TD. In week 2 versus the Panthers he had many more snaps and completed 27 for 39 with 296 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Plus, the Bills won! Week 3 versus the Jets was similar to week 2, but Manuel made fewer completions. He went 19 for 42 with 243 yards and 1 TD. Manuel did not play as well in week 4 versus the Ravens and they relied more on CJ Spiller and the running game. He only completed 10 for 22 attempts with 167 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.
In week 5 Manuel was on the track for having his strongest game of the season. But, as I watched Manuel carry that ball down the field on October 3rd’s game versus the Browns, I knew it wasn’t going to end well. He should have slid or gone out of bounds sooner! I was yelling at the television and then when he got hit and didn’t come up I was furious. He should have known better than to do something so ambitious. So that was a nice good bye to EJ for 4 to 6 weeks with a sprained LCL in his knee. He left the game in the third quarter having completed 11 for 20 with 129 yards.
by Zhengyang Cong D. Fence. Not a southern gate removal company. Not a low division of sword fighting. A most underrated aspect of college football, defense is the linchpin of the Alabama football team, a constant throughout the come and go of specific players. Widely lauded as the archetype of the traditionally dominant SEC defenses, the Crimson Tide dominates opposing rushers, stifling the box. Premier backs … Continue reading Alabama: Ebbing the Pass
by Elliot Tan It’s safe to say the Giants aren’t the giants of the NFL any more. Just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl, Big Blue is 0-4 and last in the NFC East. Unceremoniously off to their worst start of the season since 1987, hope is fading in the locker room, as Antrel Rolle’s bold claim for a 12-0 finish has been … Continue reading Started From the Top Now We’re Here - The 2013 New York Giants
Princeton Sports Analytics writers Max Kaplan and Philip Chang are stat nerds. They have just returned from the so-called Geekapalooza, MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. The conference included many faces of the sports analytics world, including Daryl Morey, Nate Silver, Mark Cuban, and many others. However, there were also ex-coaches and GM’s who were also behind the learning curve. Here is a discussion between Max and Philip about the most interesting aspects of the conference.
Max Kaplan: Sup, Phil. 2 days. 2700 people. 1000 Students. Dozens of panels. Who did you find most interesting among the panels?
Philip Chang: Howdy, Max. And before I say anything, let me give a big thank you to the Princeton ORFE department for allowing us to go.
Anyway, while the opening panel Revenge of the Nerds (this year, featuring Mark Cuban, Nate Silver, Daryl Morey, Paraag Marathe, and Michael Lewis) in past years has been the conference’s highlight, it really featured a lot more fluff than I had expected. There was almost no observation of the analytical aspect itself; rather, it seemed to be more of a discussion of different applications of those statistics, and how the structure of player/team evaluation has changed throughout the years. Not that that’s a bad thing, but that steered me away in response to your question, and thus, *upset pick* I really gotta say that the “Predictive Sports Betting Analytics” panel seemed the most contentious and informative of the bunch.
MK: Upset pick? What was the spread? Or the least you could do is explain to me why you were interested in the gambling panel.
PC: Haha, good one. Gambling is typically seen as a “dirty” part of sports, but through the eyes of professional NBA bettor Haralabos Voulgaris, and his interaction with “21” star Jeff Ma, bettor blogger Chad Millman, and director of bookkeeping organization Matthew Holt, we were able to examine how practically sports games, and seasons, could be predicted based on a) the models one chooses, and b) how closely one follows that sports. Haralabos (Bob) described how he closely followed the NBA, which allowed him to place bets with winning strategies on particular games. For the gaming commission, however, it was much more difficult because Holt and his compadres have to place lines on nearly every sporting competition on the planet, with not nearly as much research on a particular competition as Bob has had. To me, it seemed to be a really interesting, practical, and eye-opening discussion that captured exactly what is possible to predict in sports with purely a model, and how those models sometimes don’t take into effect things like lockout seasons, personal issues, etc. Thoughts?
It’s Championship Week, and the picks are in! This week we have Sam Michaelson and Max Kaplan joining us for the first time. Last week, Jay Hashop was the only one to pick Atlanta, and therefore the only writer to get two games correct, bringing his record to 6-2 so far. This week he is sticking with them, while the other writers aren’t convinced.
If you’d like to see us justify a bunch of picks that were eventually wrong, here are last week’s picks.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Jay Hashop: Atlanta; Much of San Fransisco’s offensive success against the Packers followed as a result of their 8-for-13 mark on third down. That 62% rate seems anomalous given that the 49ers converted a subpar 36% on third down in Kaepernick’s regular season starts. Atlanta’s run game looked revitalized against Seattle, providing the necessary balance the Falcons will need to continue toward the Super Bowl.
Sam Michaelson: San Francisco; While everyone seems to be discussing Kaepernick’s record-breaking rushing performance, aside from his early interception, he was also nearly perfect through the air. Russell Wilson showed that the Falcons defense is susceptible to a scrambling/playmaking quarterback in the second half last week, and I fully expect Kaepernick to exploit these weaknesses as well. Matt Ryan will need a monster game against arguably the best defense in the league to keep up with the ‘9ers balanced attack.
Max Kaplan: San Francisco; The Falcons almost blew it last week. The 49ers, on the other hand, approached 600 yards. They already had a top defense (2nd to only Seattle in the regular season). The Falcons were the #1 seed and have home field advantage (7-1 in the regular season), but the 49ers just looked unstoppable against the Packers. Kaepernick runs a 4.5 40-yard dash, and the Niners will run their way into the Super Bowl.
Chad Horner: San Francisco; The 49ers are better than the Falcons in passing and rushing DVOA on both offense and defense. They’re simply the better team. If Atlanta is to win, it’ll have to be through the air - they’re 29th in rushing offense DVOA, while San Fran is 2nd in rushing defense. However, the Falcons are only 2-3 in games in which Matt Ryan throws over 40 passes. I think the Niners will run all over Atlanta and win big.
Continue reading “NFL Conference Championship Playoff Picks”
